A new poll found that 57.6% of people of Puerto Rican origin in central Florida believe that Puerto Rico should be made a State based on the territory’s vote for the status in November 2012.
Only 30.4% of those questioned in a scientific survey thought that there was a need for another plebiscite among all of Puerto Rico’s status options, including the current territory status sometimes misleadingly called “commonwealth.”
Issue Would Sway Their Vote
Candidates for public office who support statehood or a choice between statehood and nationhood are far more likely to win the votes of central Floridians of Puerto Rican origin, according to the random sample.
Asked to rate the odds of voting for candidates for public office based on various positions on the status of Puerto Rico, with 0 representing “extremely unlikely” and 10 being “extremely likely,” supporting statehood for the territory scored 8.1, and backing a bill that guaranteed it statehood got 7.5.
Advocating legislation for a vote to resolve the issue of the territory’s ultimate status — a choice between statehood and nationhood — was an even better way for a candidate to win the vote of central Florida Puerto Ricans: They rated the odds of supporting such a political figure at 8.3.
Backing the current status of the Commonwealth, however, drove the odds of a candidate winning their votes down to 4.6.
Statehood First Choice of 64%
The results were consistent with other findings of the survey by a top national political polling company. Sixty-four percent identified statehood as their preference for Puerto Rico’s status.
Federal Action Important to 85%
A total of 85% of the Florida citizens of Puerto Rican origin polled view presidential and congressional action to resolve the question of Puerto Rico’s ultimate status as important. It was “Extremely important” to 37%, “Very Important” to 39%, and “Somewhat important” to 9%.
Only 9% of those surveyed regarded Federal action on the issue as “Not very important” and just two percent answered “Not important.”
Statehood Would Make 81% Proud
A full 81% would be “proud” if the territory became a State. Asked if they agree with the statement that Puerto Rican statehood would make them proud, 60% of those polled answered that they would be “strongly agree” proud, and 21% responded that they would be “somewhat” agree,
Only 15% did not agree, nine percent “strongly,” and six percent “somewhat.”
The responses show that many people of Puerto Rican origin who are not advocates of statehood for Puerto Rico would be happy if the territory becomes a State.
National Political Importance
The poll results are of national political importance. Florida is a State so closely divided between Democrats and Republicans that it is widely considered a ‘swing’ State in presidential elections. It is so populous that it can also swing national elections one way or another.
Additionally, voters of Puerto Rican origin are considered by news and political analysts to be the “swing vote” of this swing State. They have voted for and elected both Republicans and Democrats.
Their numbers are increasing rapidly as migration from the territory to the States has totaled about 1,000 a week in recent years. Most islanders move to Florida, and most of those go to the ‘I-4 corridor’ running from the Orlando area to Tampa, the area of the survey.
The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that there were 987,663 people of Puerto Rican origin in Florida as of July 1st, 2013. It counted 847,550 in 2010 and 482,027 in 2000. The 2000 count was double the number of people of Puerto Rican origin in 1990, according to the Census.
76% for Statehood: Yes or No Vote
The percentage of citizens of Puerto Rican origin favoring a “Statehood: Yes or No” plebiscite was also overwhelming: 76%.
Puerto Rico statehood party president Pedro Pierluisi, the Commonwealth’s representative to the Federal government, has proposed such a vote. As the sole voice of the territory of 3.6 million people in the U.S. House of Representatives, he has led 131 other members of the House in sponsoring a bill that would provide for an insular vote on statehood.
The bill has sponsors from both national parties, including all Florida Democrats and several Florida Republicans. Most sponsors, however, are Democrats.
Three U.S. senators have sponsored a companion bill. All Democrats, they were led by Martin Heinrich (D-NM). Neither of Florida’s senators are sponsors.
“Commonwealth” Party Opposition
Puerto Rico Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla and most of his “commonwealth” party members who control the territorial Legislative Assembly oppose a vote on statehood, but some party leaders do not. They include Garcia Padilla’s predecessor as party president, former insular House of Representatives Minority Leader Hector Ferrer, who has hinted that he may challenge Garcia for the governorship in 2016.
The “commonwealth” party leadership is united, however, in its refusal to accept the validity of the 2012 plebiscite conducted under territorial law and the vote’s results. It supported the current territory status rejected in the plebiscite and failed in its effort to defeat statehood in the vote.
Federal Status Resolution Law
The “commonwealth” party’s refusal to accept the plebiscite’s results led to President Obama proposing and the Congress in January passing legislation for a plebiscite on status options that can resolve the question of the territory’s ultimate status and do not conflict with the Constitution, laws, and policies of the United States.
Puerto Rico’s Elections Commission would make a proposal for the options but the U.S. Department of Justice would have to find that the alternatives meet the requirements of the Federal law. The Justice Department approval would make it awkward for a losing party to dispute the results, as the “commonwealth” party leadership has done regarding the 2012 plebiscite results.
Thirty percent of those questioned in the poll were aware that the Federal government had enacted the law for another plebiscite, although limited to real statuses that can resolve the issue.
The Poll
The poll was conducted by Voter Consumer Research. It is being released in stages by a new Website,www.pr51st.com.
People were questioned between August 20th and September 4th. Ninety-two percent were registered voters.
Voter Consumer Research says that the survey has a potential accuracy variance of plus or minus 4.9% — an amount that would hardly matter given the lopsided nature of the results.
The firm has been praised for the accuracy of its polls by the two national political analysts not identified with a political party who may be the most highly regarded in the field, Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg.
Read the whole story
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Puerto Rico’s representative to the Federal government noted that the U.S. Department of Justice under Attorney General Eric Holder had proposed a Federal law providing for a plebiscite on the territory’s political status.
The legislation enacted into law in January is for a vote on options that can resolve the question of the territory’s ultimate status.
Resident Commissioner Pedro Pierluisi made the statement in response to Holder’s announcement that he would soon leave the job.
The statehood party president pointed out that “Attorney General Holder requested that Congress appropriate $2.5 million to enable Puerto Rico to conduct the first Federally-sponsored status vote in the territory’s history, to be held among one or more options that are consistent with the U.S. Constitution, Federal law and public policy.”
He went on to say that “This appropriation, which became law in January 2014, is the most important step that the Federal government has ever taken to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status.”
In a 2012 plebiscite under local law, Puerto Ricans rejected the territory’s current status, sometimes misleadingly called “commonwealth” by 54%, with 61.2% choosing statehood as the alternative.
The Commonwealth’s governor and majorities in the Legislative Assembly elected at the same time, however, dispute the plebiscite and have refused to honor the results. They had supported the losing current territory status in the plebiscite.
Fearing that their opposition would thwart the self-determination will of the people of Puerto Rico, the Obama Administration proposed a plebiscite under Federal law. Congress, on a bipartisan basis, agreed.
The 2012 plebiscite was the fourth status vote that Puerto Rico has held. The first was in 1967.
It was, however, the first plebiscite limited to possible statuses. The three earlier votes were confused by “commonwealth” proposals that Federal officials of both national political parties later said were impossible for constitutional or other reasons.
U.S. Justice Department will have to agree to the options for the Federally-authorized plebiscite to ensure that the proposals can finally resolve the territory’s status question and do not conflict with U.S. law and policy.
Pierluisi, a national Democrat, has led 131 other members of the U.S. House of Representatives of both national parties and three U.S. senators in proposing that the new plebiscite be a simple vote on statehood. His proposal has been endorsed by others, including Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus.
Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla opposes the idea, however. He wants the new vote to be on all of the territory’s status options — including a new “commonwealth status.”
The U.S. Justice Department under Holder has advised that Puerto Rico would remain a territory under any “commonwealth” arrangement, so Garcia’s proposal would not meet the requirement of the Federal law that the options be able to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status issue.
So many leaders of the Governor’s “commonwealth” party want Puerto Rico to become a nation with the benefits of a U.S. status and oppose Garcia’s continued “commonwealth” territory status that the Legislative Assembly has not acted on his call for it to pass legislation for the plebiscite.
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